(Bumped! Last chance to get your predictions in! – promoted by James L.)
I just created a predictions pool for us over at Predict06.com. Predict06 is a neat site which automates the process of predicting the outcome in sixty-two competitive House and Senate races. The pool feature allows a group (such as Swing State readers) to engage in a bit of friendly competition amongst itself.
So click here to join. All you need to do is create a user account (take five seconds) and you can start making predictions right away. There won’t be any prizes for this pool (unlike our home-grown contest), but you can earn bragging rights. And among the hardcore junkies who hang out here, that’s saying something!
UPDATE (James L.): Predict06 has expanded their playing field by 15 House seats. Get on over there and update your predictions accordingly! Also, I’m really pleased to see that 68 people have joined in on the Swing State Project pool so far. We’ve already cracked the top five pools and are closing in fast on the DailyKos and RedState prediction pages. It’s no secret that Swing State Project readers are some of the sexiest, savviest electoral thinkers on the internet, so let’s prove the CW right by calling these races correctly! Get your predictions in today, because tonight will be the last night that Predict06 will accept your submissions.
…is that it potentially underestimates Democratic victories, simply by leaving off too many under-the-radar competitive districts from its model: ID-01, NE-03, OH-12, AZ-01, KS-02, WY-AL, NY-19, NY-25, NY-03, NC-08, and PA-04, for instance. I bet we pick off at least one of those seats.
Predict96.com has added about 15 races. Time to go update your predictions everyone.
Yeah, the list from which we’re picking is far from comprehensive. Hell, I eneded up with the GOP still in control under their list and rules.
Then again, what do I know? I couldn’t pick against Count Chocola simply because I love the name.
Speaking of Cereal Candidates, Dems have a legislative canidate in WV’s Easten Panhandle named Frankenberry. I lok forward to him running for prez with the Count on a fusion ticket.
And where are Davidnyc’s picks? C’mon, boss, lay it on the line.
was that that site was not so “non-partisan”, definite Gop edge and alot of Freepers blogging(Had enuf of that crap for over a year). Think I’ll skip the depressing Gop tainted predictions and attitude & focus my attention here.
Kos sent me here. Said this was a new blog and there’d be booze for the first 200 sign-ups.
When are you going to start having flame wars and pie fights? (Hint: blame the hippies for something…anything…and you’ll be off to the races.)
Anyway, I shall be watching your career with great interest, young Jedi Skybritches.
27 House
6 Senate
7 Governors
…and one steel cage.
on your new set up. Looking forward to participating.
I don’t know why the system won’t let me log in to post these over on the other thread.
MT-Sen: Tester (D) 50.5% Burns (R) 49.5%
CT-Sen: Lieberman (CFL) 49% Lamont (D) 42%
TN-Sen: Corker (R) 54% Ford (D) 46%
PA-06: Murphy (D) 52% Gerlach (R) 48%
FL-22: Shaw (R) 51% Klein (D) 49%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 52% Wilson (R) 48%
NH-02: Hodes (D) 51% Bass (R) 49%
ID-01: Grant (D) 52% Sali (R) 48%
MN-01: Gil (R) 50% Walz (D) 50%
OH-13: Tiberi (R) 52% Schmansky (D) 48%
CA-04: Doolittle (R) 53% Brown (D) 47%
NE-03: Smith 52% (R) Kleeb (D) 48%
TX-Gov: Perry 40%, Bell 30%, Strayhorn 21%, Friedman 9%
are Dem gains of 4 in Senate, 21 in House.
when I try to go to the site…
As the SUSA polls tonight suggest, the real question on the table is this: has there been a shift in party id from 2004 to 2006. Example, in the Mo. poll out tonight SUSA has 42% Dems, 33% Repugs, 21 Indies. In 2004 it was 35% GOP, 36% Dems and 29% Indies.
If SUSA is right, there has been a real shift in party ID. This is what is behind what seems to be a break to the Dems that they have found (See Fl Gov, VA Sen – even their MD Sen was better for Dems than the previous one.)
Rasmussen is not finding this shift.
This is scary, because they were the BEST pollsters in 2004. Make no mistate – they are also really the only pollsters who have been polling over the last two days – MD and Zogby ended days earlier.
Over the last two years Rasmussen’s Bush numbers have consistently been 4-6% better for Bush than other pollsters have found. Why? He has not found the right sample of Dems and Repugs.
I think SUSA has. I think the break that SUSA is finding is part of break away from the GOP in the last 24 hours. My view of the last 5 days is this:
3-5 days ago: The core GOP vote comes home. Incumbent GOP senators see their numbers climb (RI, MT). Note that they never get to 50.
The last 48 hours: The undecided break against the incumbents, and the GOP fails to convince their marginal voters to vote.
My predictions: +6 in the Senate (we lose only Tenn among the close races) and 42 in the House.
I didn’t have time to do the House predictions today and got cut off at midnight….
Seems to me that they should keep it open until 3 a.m. PST — how many actual voter returns do you get by 12:01 a.m PST?
Rats.